Thursday, December 22, 2011

Who Killed the Fuel Cell Car?



I'm not implying or pointing fingers just yet, but my first suspect is big oil.

Now before we all get bent out of shape and I'm accused of being some whale hugging anti-oil bigot, let me remind you that I own four other cars, all of which burn lots of dino juice and I'm not about to give up any of them.  But hear me out.

We all know petroleum isn't going to last too much longer, and that we're on the road to alternative forms of energy to power our cars.  We also all know that there are two strong and leading candidates to replace the internal combustion engine: plug-in battery electric and hydrogen fuel-cell electric.  Now these aren't the only ones, but they are the ones that many car manufacturers are backing.

Battery powered electric vehicles (EVs) has been around for a few decades now, and advances in battery technology and plug in infrastructure are making plug-in Battery EV's much more accessible to the average driver.  Nissan already produces the fully electric Leaf, and Mitsubishi will be launching the "i" electric car next year.  In addition, we have the fully electric battery powered cars in the next few years like the Tesla S sedan, the Honda Fit EV, the Ford Focus EV and many others.  The major challenge with plug-in EV's remain range and recharge times.  Range will continue to increase, from 60 miles to 120 miles to 300 miles.  But the battery charge times still force drivers of plug in EV's to change their current routines.  They must account for recharging times into their driving lifestyle, allowing from 2 hours to 20 hours to partially or fully charge their batteries.  Set aside the other arguments against plug-in EVs for the moment (where the electricity from the plug comes from; battery disposal etc), and the recharging issue remains the single biggest hurdle for plug-in EVs.

And this is where hydrogen fuel-cell cars, I believe, have a much more realistic 'lifestyle' application than plug-in electric cars.  We drive around, and when we run out of energy, we pull into a station and pump it full of more energy, exactly as we do today with petroleum based internal combustion cars.  We still have the benefits of zero-emission driving as plug-in battery electric cars, but without the need to factor in recharge times.  We as consumers have to make no changes to our existing lives, our existing routines, and this is why I personally believe that the hydrogen fuel cell car is the answer.

The current shortcomings with fuel cell is where to get hydrogen?  As discusses previously, this is the "Chicken or the Egg" syndrome of hydrogen fuel cells.  Without great numbers of cars on the road to warrant a demand for hydrogen, energy companies can't invest in making hydrogen pumps readily available.  But without hydrogen pumps readily available, you won't have any fuel cell cars on the road.

Automobile manufacturers and Petroleum companies have shared a symbiotic history of dependency upon each other for over a century.  When 'horse-less carriages' came to the forefront, slowly but surely, gasoline stations began popping up around the world to power the greater number of people embracing this 'new' technology.  We are right back to this dawn of energy infrastructure with hydrogen fuel cells.

Auto manufacturers, like Daimler, have invested decades and millions into the development of hydrogen fuel cell cars, which I again argue is the future of personal mobility.  In addition to Daimler/Mercedes-Benz, Toyota, Honda and Hyundai have committed to launching production hydrogen fuel cell cars to the American marketplace in 2014, with cars from General Motors, BMW, and others not far behind.  The car I drive today, every day, is part of a 'test-trial' lease program for hydrogen fuel cell cars.  The Cars themselves are here, TODAY.  They're ready for the roads.  And anyone who says otherwise need only sit on the side of the 405 freeway at 7:45AM and 6:45PM EVERYDAY to see me and others using hydrogen fuel cell cars as part of our uncompromised daily lives.  The Cars are here: where are the fueling stations?

Of the two prevailing energy sources for electric cars, one includes "big oil" in the retailing of energy (hydrogen fuel cell), and one completely cuts them out of the equation (plug-in electric).  So it begs the question: why aren't energy companies pushing more aggressively to sustain their current position in the automotive food chain and retail hydrogen in the future?

I recently had an opportunity to have a very candid and casual discussion with someone familiar with hydrogen retailing who works for one of the major petroleum companies.  His answer was very frank and honest: petroleum companies sell oil, and that's how we make our money.  The world still runs on oil and oil is what pays the bills and demand for oil will still be strong in the decades to come.  Hydrogen is maybe tomorrow, but unless we see a greater demand for hydrogen, we won't invest further into it.

As a business owner, I can relate to the needs of today and profitability of today.  I was reminded of a professional athlete's mentality in his statement: earn as much as you can today, in your prime, because you're gonna be washed up in a matter of years and you need dough to keep you going after the fame and fortune is all gone.

While companies like Royal Dutch Shell, BP and Chevron/Texaco all have 'feel good' TV commercials showing alternative energy through wind, solar and geothermal, it appears the campaigns are all public relations only, and in practical applications, Big Oil do it more because they 'have to' and not because they 'want to'. And who are we to say how they need to run their business?

What big oil need to understand, however, is that long term survival as energy providers will depend upon their partnerships with other industries like Automotive to come up with solutions for tomorrow's energy needs.  All the current senior mangers at Big Oil will be long dead before we see hydrogen become as critical to profits as petroleum is today.  But isn't immortality about leaving a legacy for your kids and grandkids as opposed to taking what you need today without any positive impact for tomorrow?

I challenge energy providers to come up with more hydrogen fueling solutions, especially for the only market in the US that can currently sustain a demand for it.  We need to actively and voluntarily look for way to increase demand of fuel cell vehicles and demand for the hydrogen that energy companies will inevitably be able to retail.  Energy companies can't wait for state subsidies or federal incentives for hydrogen.  For the same price of paying for an expensive advertising agency to create and media buy "feel good" TV commercials, energy companies could actually "do" feel good actions by investing into new hydrogen retail stations and promoting hydrogen fuel to consumers.  There are not many industries where you can drive demand for your own products, and by helping sell more fuel cell cars, energy companies win long term by owning the refueling needs of the future consumer.

You're either part of the problem or part of the solution, and if Energy Companies fail to act, I'm afraid the hydrogen fuel cell concept will go the way of the Betamax.  We'll all be left with plug in electric cars, plugging into wall outlets at home and at the office, and completely removing Shell, BP, Chevron/Texaco and Conoco/Philips completely and fully from the energy equation for automobiles.  Energy companies have a choice when it comes to retailing of fuel for automobiles in the future, and they alone are now in charge of their own fate.

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